The biofuels rush and the growing demand for clean energy were the two core themes of many theories that seek to justify the increase of food price in 2006 and 2007.  Aspects such as inflation, the explosion of oil price, which entailed high costs for fertilizers and other inputs, international freight costs and increased production costs as a result of sustainability demands are essential for a deeper analysis about increase of prices, but not always are they given due attention.

Chances that the debate on food versus energy will persist in 2008 are high, which is positive, given that it will clarify and throw light on myths that are easily developed. Nonetheless, a new element, which may impact the price of foods and impair exports from countries such as Brazil has come up. It is the obligation of an insurance against possible damages that genetically modified organisms that may multiply, such as seeds and grains, known as living modified organisms (LMOs), may cause when taken from one country to another. In other words, depending on how the Cartagena Protocol negotiations develop, farmers, transporters and exporters may have to buy insurances to be able to produce, transport and export transgenic products such as seeds and grains for processing.

In March 2008 Brazil will take part of a Protocol meeting in Colombia, with the purpose of debating the almost 50 pages of proposes and to reach a more concise text that will be taken to the Meeting of Parties 4 (MOP4), which will be held in the city of Bonn next May. The focus of these two meetings will be the establishment of liability and redress rules for possible damages caused by LMOs. In spit of having a central position in the Protocol, as the only large producer/exporter and holder of an extremely rich biodiversity to take part in the treaty, the participation of Brazil in the last meetings was a very timid.

The first problem when one thinks about creating these insurances is that so far the countries have not reached a consensus on what a damage by an LMO means, and what the nature of such damage is. May the simple fact of a grain coming from another country germinating along a road be considered damage? Is such damage is limited to biodiversity, as expressly stated in the Protocol, or it reaches asset, cultural and even spiritual damages as some countries support?

It is plausible to think that if the Protocol requires insurances of this sort they will eventually be created. This is a marketing question. The problem is that in case at hand they are create in an environment of vagueness on what damage cause by an LMO and its nature actually mean, the production and export cost of certain products will certainly increase, and accordingly, so will the price of foods. Just imagine the soybean and corn chain and number of foods that derive from these two products.

What sounds more intriguing is that the Protocol would try to raise the cost of processes foods, which, in fact, is out of their reach. It shall be reminded that meals, processed foods and other derivates are not living organisms and, therefore, should be out of such discussions.

Another aspect to be pointed out when noting the proximity of meetings and the need for Brazil to defend a balanced position in the negotiation, is the fact that most importers of Brazilian soybeans in 2006 had their own rules on LMOs (out of the 33 largest importers, only 9 did not have biotechnology rules). In the case of corn, out of the 32 largest importers, only 13 did not have rules of this sort. This means to say that despite 143 countries are part in the Protocol, it is more feasible to create enforceable rules that may be implemented, than to make strict decisions that exceed their purposes for countries will easily fail to meet them.     

In 2008, the Protocol meetings promise heated debates. It is high time Brazil takes part of such discussions defending balanced proposals, limited to the purposes of the Protocol. In this sense, it is necessary to harmonize the divergences among the ministries that must, at the beginning of the year, define the positions Brazil will defend in Colombia and in Germany.

Finally, the government is expected to bear in mind the possible effects that a bad negotiation may bring to the country, including, among them, the increase of food price, new barriers against agriculture exports and the commitment of the country with rules that go beyond the Protocol and aim at holding back the development of biotechnology.